How does housing relate to the economy? We make it simple. by Jen Hudson

STATE OF THE MARKET, 1ST QUARTER 2018

We believe that the housing market is a lot more than just homes.  This graphic (below) is oversimplified, but just think about all the interlocking pieces involved for our world to function.

economy simplifiedNow with this big picture view in mind, let’s talk about what is going on in Washington State today.

The Washington State economy added 96,900 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.9%—still solidly above the national rate of 1.5%. Most of the employment gains were in the private sector, which rose by 3.4%. The public sector saw a more modest increase of 1.6%.

The strongest growth was in the Education & Health Services and Retail sectors, which added 17,300 and 16,700 jobs, respectively. The Construction sector added 10,900 new positions over the past 12 months.  10,900 jobs in Construction is a start, but let’s face it… we need a lot more than that to catch up with our housing demands.

Even with this solid increase in jobs, the state unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%—a figure that has not moved since September of last year.  Remember, the unemployment rate only counts people who are looking for jobs in the workforce, not people who can’t work or who are sitting on the sidelines.

We expect the Washington State economy to continue adding jobs in 2018, but not at the same rate as last year.  Why?  A couple reasons.  One, employers only hire as many people as they need to run a company.  If employers are already fully staffed, then their business demands need to increase before making new jobs.  Plus, you can’t have new jobs without people.  If people are not able to work, or choose not to work, then you can’t hire them.  It’s that simple.  That said, we will still outperform the nation as a whole when it comes to job creation, as we have a lot of stable and “needs-based” industries here, such as Health Care, Aerospace, Education, and Transportation.

WA unemployment March 2018

Where did we lose jobs?  Manufacturing.  Our Manufacturing sector has lost 5,700 jobs this past year, with another loss of 3,300 projected.

Where else are we paying attention?  Aerospace.  There is some concern that President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs could hurt manufacturers such as Boeing.  While much of Boeing’s material is sourced domestically, many of their orders come from China.  If China decides to retaliate, they could easily shift their orders over to Airbus, which would hurt our local economy.  On a good note, there is a growing demand for cargo planes, which means the 767 line in Everett is expected to increase, along with 737s and 787s.

This increase in cargo planes also supports what we are seeing down in the Ports.  The container volume (you know, the giant metal containers that go from ships to trains to trucks to stores) was up 6% in February, and our breakbulk volume (meaning things that need to be loaded individually, like oil in containers or apples in crates) was up almost 30%.  The one shipment that has been down consistently?  Auto volume, which was down 8% in February.

What other major companies drive our local economy besides Boeing and the Ports?

top 10 employersAmazon.  They currently have 8.1 million square feet of office space, which is expected to soar to 12 million square feet within the next 5 years.  Amazon’s search for H2 has concerns for slowed hiring locally, but regardless they are still one of our heavy hitters when it comes to employment.  Microsoft is also talking about expanding their Redmond Campus, which means ultimately renovating 6.7 million square feet and building another 2.5 million square feet by the end of 2020.  Other major drivers in our local economy for office space are a mix of both old and new tech companies, including Cisco, Apple, eBay, AirBNB, Uber, Snap, Alibaba, Tableau, Valve, and Wave Broadband.

On the slower side we have retailers.  We are going to lose some major stores this year both locally and nationally due to closures, including Macy’s, Sears, Kmart, Toys R Us, and Babies R Us. Despite this, there are still new retail stores and centers under construction, with others moving toward more of a mixed-use design.

Home Sales Activity: Western Washington

  • There were 14,961 home sales during the first quarter of 2018. This is a drop of 5.4% over the same period in 2017.
  • Listing inventory in the quarter was down by 17.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017, but pending home sales rose by 2.6% over the same period, suggesting that closings in the second quarter should be fairly robust.
  • The takeaway from this data is that the lack of supply continues to put a damper on sales. We also believe that the rise in interest rates in the final quarter of 2017 likely pulled sales forward, leading to a drop in sales in the first quarter of 2018.
  • Anyone expecting to see a rapid rise in the number of homes for sale in 2018 will likely be disappointed. New construction permit activity—a leading indicator—remains well below historic levels and this will continue to put increasing pressure on the resale home market.

Annual Changes in Home Prices: Western Washington

  • With ongoing limited inventory, it’s not surprising that the growth in home prices continues to trend well above the long-term average. Year-over-year, average prices rose 14.4% to $468,312.
  • Economic vitality in the region is leading to robust housing demand that exceeds supply. Given the limited number of new construction homes, there will continue to be pressure on the resale market. As a result, we believe home prices will continue to rise at above-average rates in the coming year.
  • Mortgage rates continued to rise during first quarter, and are expected to increase modestly in the coming months. By the end of the year interest rates will likely land around 4.9% +/-, which should take some of the steam out of price growth. This is actually a good thing and should help address the challenges we face with housing affordability—especially in markets near the major job centers.

home appreciation 2

While the housing market is great today, please keep in mind that everything cycles.  Will home values drop tomorrow?  Probably not.  Keep an eye on interest rates and your timing in the market if you want to make any moves in the future.  Need help trying to predict the future?  Give us a call or email to stay ahead of the trends.

Jen Hudson (206) 293-1005 and Duane Petzoldt (425) 239-1780

Commercial RE Appraisal Changes

Did you know? On April 9, 2018, the FDIC changed their rules.  Per the federal agencies, commercial real estate transactions below $500,000 will no longer be required to have an appraisal.

Remember, just because the FDIC doesn’t require something… that doesn’t mean your local lender or bank won’t.

Want to read the full rules?  Check them out here.

If you need help getting prepared for your next investment or business purchase, give us a call.

Jen Hudson

(206) 293-1005 or jen@hudsoncreg.com

Duane Petzoldt

(425) 239-1780 or duane@hudsoncreg.com

The Problem with Snapshots. by Jen Hudson

If you know me, then you know that I care about the facts.  I don’t mean facts in the sense that “fake news” is overtaking our world.  That’s for a different discussion.  Just because you can find 6 friends on Facebook to agree with you, doesn’t mean you get to change the truth.

No, I mean the issue that I have anytime someone says something like “we have a shortage of housing!”.

Let’s look at some true facts and figures for our area and talk about how markets work in real life.

The Typical Graph

Here is the typical “chart” that I see floating around real estate offices or online.  I borrowed this one from Trulia.  Let’s look past the part where it is now March, and yet they are showing me data between May-August from some unknown year.

2018.03_trulia med sales price

Or sometimes we see information like this.  I stole this data from Redfin and would like to assume it’s current.

Median List Price $875k
Median Sales Price $700k
Average Sale/List Price 107.4%
Average Number of Offers 4.4
Median List Price/Square Foot $471/sf

 

So, these are great and everything… but what can you learn from them?

I will tell you.  Trulia’s graph makes you think prices are skyrocketing and creating a bubble, right?  Redfin makes you think everything sells with multiple offers and prices jump leaps and bounds, no matter what price you put on your home.

But, do you want to know a secret?  Pricing is really all about the market, and the market always comes back to economics 101.  Supply versus Demand.

Yes, it is really that simple.

But what numbers do you need to know to understand what is happening in the real estate market?

Let’s dig a little further in our real-life, local example, and show you what you are missing.

Let’s look at Lake Stevens to start.  What would you think if you saw the following information about Lake Stevens real estate?

Graph 1
Based on this, it appears that homes are flying off the shelf in Lake Stevens.  If I’m a seller, I expect that magically all I need to do is list my house and then about a week later, it will be sold.  As a seller, I’m also pretty sure that my house must be better than the ones that sell for $415,000, so it will of course sell faster.

Maybe.  But, maybe not.  Have you walked through what sells for $415,000 lately?  It’s different than what sold for $415,000 a couple years ago.

This is clearly not enough information.  Let’s dig further.

Now what do you think when you see the information expanded into a little more detail?

Graph 2

This is interesting too.  It appears that there is an entire range of homes selling in just 10 days.  I could sell my trailer in the woods or my waterfront estate in roughly a week and for a little more than I ask for!  Clearly everything is selling for 100.01%!

This is better, but it is still not ideal.

Now, let’s break up our information a little bit more and really dive into the activity in each price segment.

Pro-tip: Pricing Segments are keys to understanding market movement.

Graph_Lake Stevens
Alright.  Now we are talking.  This information is useful.
Side bar:  These are wide price segments shown for discussion purposes only.  In real life, I will break them down even further into ranges that would encompass your specific property and location, to get a true gauge of demand and activity.  For example, if your home is worth $450,000, then we will probably look between $400,000-$500,000, since that may be the range a typical buyer for your property looks at.

Let’s point out a couple things that may or may not be obvious.

Price Segments.  By segmenting everything into targeted price points, I can now see that there are 109 homes in Lake Stevens priced between $300-$500k and an additional 65 homes priced between $500-$750k.  I can also see that there are far fewer homes on both the lower end below $300k and the upper end above $750k, or 7 and 15 homes respectively.

I would not have known this with a general price statement, so now you can see where the competing homes for sale are.

Days on Market.  Days on market is great, but only when it is used in your targeted price segment.  Buyers want to know how quickly they will need to make and offer.  Sellers want to know how long they can expect before they need to pack up and move.

Remember that Days on Market is not a set number.  Homes will always sell for what the market is.  If it is priced lower, it could mean bidding wars and multiple offers immediately.  If a property is priced too high, it will sit for a little longer.

Graph_Lake Stevens

Activity & Demand.  This is cool too.  Do you notice how there are currently 80 buyers between $300-$500k and another 42 buyers between $500-$750k, yet there are only a handful for the lower and upper ends?  It’s something to consider, whether buying or selling.  You need to position yourself correctly and understand where you are within each price segment.

Months of Inventory.  We have all heard of buyer’s markets and seller’s markets.  But, what is that about?  First, you need to understand that all statements about months of inventory make a lot of assumptions.

They essentially say… “Assuming there are no additional listings that come on the market, no additional properties that go off the market, and a steady flow of buyers who will consistently continue to buy homes at the same rate they have over the past 6 months (or 12 months or whatever number you are using for data), then it will take XX number of months to sell the rest of the available homes.”

Is that a real life scenario?  No.

I do think the months of inventory is a good gauge to look at and keep in mind when trying to price your property strategically, but it is also important to recognize there are other things at play beyond our control.  Things like the season, weather, interest rates, local economy, community development (or lack of), employers, global economic forces, and more.

Graph_Lake Stevens

Demand Ratio.  The demand ratio is something I made up, but it gives us a very realistic perspective of where the buyers are, and in a very common sense way.  Let’s define the demand ratio as number of pending homes divided by number of homes listed on the market (active plus pending).

For example, if there are 80 buyers under contract (pending) and 109 sellers wanting to sell (80 pending plus 29 active), they have a demand ratio of 0.7 (80 divided by 109).  This is a good strong number if I’m a seller and means there is a lot of competition if I’m a buyer.  What we have just figured out is that for every home on the market, there are 0.7 buyers looking for it.

However, if there is only 1 buyer under contract above $1 million, and 5 homes left to choose from over (means 1 pending plus 5 active = 6), then my demand ratio has dropped significantly to 0.17.  Now, the ball is in the buyer’s court with a plenty of options to consider and low competition from other buyers.

Some obvious things to point out:

  1. If we are talking about a demand ratio and there are no buyers in that price range and area… then the demand is zero (0).  If you are a buyer, this is a wonderful time to shop since you are your only competition.  If you are a seller, then you had better get realistic about your price to try and attract all potential buyers.  Period.
  2. If all the homes on the market are under contract or pending, then your demand ratio is one (1).  In that case, if you are a buyer then you will need to be ready to pounce immediately on the next opportunity that comes along.

If you are a seller, you still can’t be greedy.  While it is tempting to want to test the waters a little, remember than an overpriced property is still overpriced.

Sales Price versus List Price Ratios.

You may have noticed that I did not include any information about what the ratio for sales price versus list price.

Here’s my two cents and opinion on the topic.

I think agents need to know what their sales price versus list price ratio is, but I think this number is misinterpreted.  With the correct exposure and negotiating for any property, a professional agent will be able to get you the best of what the market will bear.

I am sure you have talked with someone or seen statistics where a home received 15 offers and sold for 112% of it’s list price.  Many people use it almost like bragging rights today… but this isn’t something they would brag about if they understood what happened.

Multiple offers and a bidding war might be great in most seller’s minds, but do you know what I think?  I think that whoever the agent was didn’t understand their market at all and was a disservice to their client instead.

Consider the numbers.  If you are the seller in Lake Stevens with a $415,000 home… that means your agent almost lost you 12% or $49,800 in your sale.  Something to think about anyway.

For me personally, as a Seller’s agent my list to sales price ratio is 101.7% based on the last year.  This indicates I am a little more aggressive for pricing and pulled in a couple buyers to use against each other to bid the property up.  In this market this competitive strategy works, but it depends on your price segment and demand ratios.

As a Buyer’s agent, my list to sales price ratio is 95.5%, indicating I find deals for my clients and know how to negotiate them down to favorable terms.

The Big Secret About Obvious Information

Here is one last thing to keep in mind.  In many circumstances like we have today, this is the optimal time to “move-up” into your next almost dream house.  Depending on your location and the market conditions, you could easily be in a “seller’s market” as you sell your $450k home and quickly shift into your next move into a slower moving balanced or buyer’s market, as you purchase your new $700k home.  The different segments within the market, plus the equity you may have earned in your current home could start to pay off much more quickly than you realize and ultimately get your closer to your dreams.

The next time you see a generic graph or table with basic information, take a moment to consider what is really going on in the market.  Of course, if you need help and want real answers from a true professional, then I’m easy to find most any day except Sundays.

I hope this helps you with your plans toward the big picture.  My partner Duane and I would be honored to help you with your next move or investment… since it is an amazing time to take advantage of what other people don’t know or just can’t see.  You can call Jen at (206) 293-1005 or Duane at (425) 239-1780.

Cheers!

Jen Hudson & Duane Petzoldt

An Obvious Defense, Overlooked By Many.  By Jen Hudson

Note: The names have not been changed, as neither party is innocent.

Terry and Diane Visser lived in Blaine, Washington and had a habit of buying homes as investment properties.  They bought one of these “fixer-uppers” as an investment back in 2005.

After acquiring the property and beginning their renovations, they realized Continue reading “An Obvious Defense, Overlooked By Many.  By Jen Hudson”